January 20, 2025: Tuesday

Macro Changes

One thing that never changes is that we can always count on disruptive, unexpected changes.

We can expect economic, political, and social forces to come at any time. Today’s news cycle offers a clear example. Global tariff discussions are influencing the pricing of consumer goods. Markets are reacting. Pre-market indicators suggest significant drops in major indices. At the same time, traditional hedges like gold and silver are pushing to new highs, while Bitcoin prices fluctuate sharply.

These movements affect portfolios, retirement accounts, business planning, and household confidence. I’ve earned a living by investing in markets, and days like this can bring real changes to my balance sheet. That volatility is part of the journey.

What matters most is not the disruption itself, but how we respond when we face macro changes that are beyond our control. Where will our decisions take in the months, years, and decades ahead?

The Same Principles Apply

When markets move sharply, I rely on the same skills that guided me through prison.

During my first days in custody, I had to look backward and forward. I examined the decisions that led me into a cell, without excuses or denial. Then I projected forward. I thought carefully about the life I wanted to lead once I regained my freedom.

In my case, that meant serving more than 9,500 days before I could put my prison term behind me.

External forces influenced everything I could and could not do. Policies changed. Administrations changed. Opportunities appeared and disappeared. None of that was within my control. Still, I could control the choices I made, and assess how those decisions would influence my life in the months, years, and decades ahead.

Everyone can do the same.

Focus on What You Can Control

In prison, I learned that forward motion does not require perfect conditions. It requires consistent decisions aligned with long-term goals. I had to keep moving in the right direction even when circumstances slowed my progress or made the path harder.

That mindset did not end when I completed my obligation to the Bureau of Prisons in August of 2013. I still rely on this framework for making decisions today. Macro-economic and political decisions may result in my investment portfolio losing more than six figures in value today. Instead of panicking, I slow down and ask disciplined questions:

• Where did I start?
• What decisions brought me here?
• Do I still believe in the underlying value of what I own?
• What do I expect those investments to look like in three, five, or ten years?

Those questions matter far more than today’s headlines.

Think in Years, Not Hours

It is difficult—if not impossible—to predict how markets will move over the next 24 hours. Short-term volatility is noisy and emotional. It tempts people into reaction rather than reflection.

Long-term thinking is different.

When we look forward with a three-to-five-year horizon, clarity improves. Decisions become more intentional. Fear loses its grip. We can accomplish extraordinary progress when we commit to steady effort rather than reacting to every fluctuation.

That lesson applies equally to investing, rebuilding after a crisis, or preparing for life after prison.